Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to occupy the role in six years.
Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?
The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.
But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.
Minority Rule
Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.
At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.
In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.
In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.
To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.
Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.
Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.
Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.
Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?
In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.
With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.
It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”
A Cultural Shift
The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.
A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.
To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, finished.
Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.
So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.
An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.
Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.
In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.
Many think that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.
“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”
