A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
