Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".
Policy Papers Show Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator
Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.
Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.
Isolation Strategy Considered Ineffective
Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Options outlined in the documents were:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
- "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers
It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."
The paper adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Playing the Longer Game Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".
The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.
